I've given this some thought. But this coming from someone that never owned a gym....had owned a small business and is educated in the business industry.
Biggest hitters are the organized events that count on making money at said organized events (meets, competitions, etc). Competitors competing in said organized events. Vendors contributing to and attending said organized events. Will be interesting to see the first few big events because i doubt that vendors will contribute much in the events. Might see smaller prize money and smaller trophies.
Gyms (large and small). Some will close, some will weather the storm. Some have adapted by providing their clients with online workouts to supplement going in. (its never the same, buy hey they try!). The smaller gyms will probably be able to reopen first since they can restrict the # of guests that come in pretty easily.
Personal trainers. Although some are successful in converting to an online format. Hey, now is the time to get those CEU's in or acquire some more certifications and education so when shit opens back up, you are well armed. I think a lot will find another path to make money.
Fitness supply companies: hardware supplies to build up a home gym are in high demand right now. Good for those suppliers, but that will fizzle out.
Workout clothing gear: i have seen a ton, and i suspect some will dry up/close down.
Supplement companies: They will weather the course. They have just changed the model in which you can get your protein powder, etc. The customers that are continuing to work out and have a great home gym are still needing these type of things. I was in a supplement store locally last week and overheard the guy ask the customer in front of me how she had heard of them and she said that they were the only ones that were still open. I think some will feel the effect and def slow down in sales. Some will close up, and some will survive.
The general fitness industry survives on fad's. So the latest and greatest thing to hit the market, or someone will come up with something for the home. Shoot, there are plenty of that out there anyway, but I think inventors will re-invigorate the market in this area. Will just refresh or tweak.
Those that have money, will
When things start to slowly open back up...it will be slow and state by state/region by region. The biggest hit will be the highly populated areas. In those highly populated areas, i see an increase in fights at the gyms because they will need to max out on the # of ppl in there and some hot heads will pop off.
What will really be interesting is the increase in fat burners or more will hit the market because after this is over ppl that gained weight during quarantine will want to get a fast pill to burn fat quickly LOL. Someone will come up with a quarantine fat burner, if they havent' already lol.