Ran some numbers on GPT earlier. I had GPT check census information regarding GenZ demographics and voting likelihood. I'm curious about whether the theory (which I hold) than Gen Z will be a large and mostly unaccounted for voter block in 2024, holds water. The most left leaning generation in America history's numbers:
To estimate how many members of Gen Z (those born from 1997 to 2012) came of age between 2020 and 2024, we look at the subset of Gen Z who reached the age of 18 during this period. Those turning 18 between 2020 and 2024 were born between 2002 and 2006, inclusive.
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that there were about 3.7 to 4 million births per year during this time range, meaning that approximately:
18.5 to 20 million Gen Z individuals turned 18 between 2020 and 2024 in the United States alone. Gen Z voter registration rates have shown strong growth, with reports indicating that around 50-55% of eligible Gen Z voters were registered in recent election cycles. This rate has been influenced by both increased political engagement and outreach efforts that target younger voters.
In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, about 53% of Gen Z was registered to vote, and approximately 49% of registered Gen Z voters turned out to cast a ballot, showing both high registration and participation rates among those newly eligible. This group helped propel Biden to victory.
Gen Z is highly motivated by specific issues, such as climate change, social justice, economic equality, and reproductive rights. These issues resonate strongly among Gen Z voters and drive both voter turnout and activism.
Gen Z has a significant online presence and is highly adept at using social media for mobilization. This skill in digital activism and organizing online campaigns means that Gen Z can amplify their voices and influence public opinion quickly, potentially leading to unexpected shifts in voter sentiment.
With millions of Gen Z individuals coming of age each year, their voter base is expanding rapidly. By 2024, this demographic is expected to account for about one in ten eligible voters in the U.S., meaning their votes could have a substantial impact on election outcomes, especially in battleground states where even small shifts in turnout can be decisive.