tommyguns2
Senior Moderators
Staff Member
- Dec 25, 2010
- 6,759
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For any of you that have been following, Harris has held a small, but consistent lead over Trump in the polls for about the past 6 weeks. However, in just the past 1.5 weeks, Trump has moved forward over Harris in each of the battleground states, and the betting averages have moved from about 50/50 to about 60/40 in Trump's favor. That's a huge move in a very short amount of time. Honestly, I have no idea why this has happened so abruptly.
This is the Real Clear Politics polling averages for the key battleground states.
The one thing I heard was that when you compare Trump's present numbers against his same numbers at this time in 2016 and 2020, he's up about 2-4% in 2024. What I take from that is, if the polls are similarly undercounting Trump voters (which is a guess, but perhaps true), then Trump has a pretty commanding lead with just 2 weeks to go.
If Trump wins, I attribute it to to at least the following two factors (besides Harris being a moron):
1. Walz was a terrible VP pick. Harris already had MN locked up and really needs PA. Shapiro is the governor of PA, well-liked there, and is actually a coherent, intelligent person who can put two sentences together. The Dems rejected him, and the only reason I can fathom is that he's Jewish, and Harris chickened out. Very stupid move.
2. Vance was an excellent VP pick. Vance has been interviewed on all the MSM talk shows, and has come out looking smart, articulate, prepared, and has smoothed out Trump's rough edges. He's also created a real crack in the Silicon Valley tech community (he was a VC out there in his previous life), and has the populism that might be enough to carry WI, MI and PA. A very smart pick.
Harris was given a huge honeymoon period, and the MSM have been carrying water for her from Day 1. Yet, even now after being the candidate for over two months, she seems ill-prepared to articulate what she plans to do, how she differentiates herself from Biden (most people do not think the last 3.5 years have been good for them economically), and whether she has a clue with respect to China, Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East. That's on her.
This is the Real Clear Politics polling averages for the key battleground states.
Michigan | 48.4 | 47.2 | Trump +1.2 |
Pennsylvania | 47.9 | 47.1 | Trump +0.8 |
Wisconsin | 48.3 | 47.9 | Trump +0.4 |
Arizona | 49.1 | 47.3 | Trump +1.8 |
North Carolina | 48.4 | 47.9 | Trump +0.5 |
Georgia | 48.9 | 46.4 | Trump +2.5 |
If Trump wins, I attribute it to to at least the following two factors (besides Harris being a moron):
1. Walz was a terrible VP pick. Harris already had MN locked up and really needs PA. Shapiro is the governor of PA, well-liked there, and is actually a coherent, intelligent person who can put two sentences together. The Dems rejected him, and the only reason I can fathom is that he's Jewish, and Harris chickened out. Very stupid move.
2. Vance was an excellent VP pick. Vance has been interviewed on all the MSM talk shows, and has come out looking smart, articulate, prepared, and has smoothed out Trump's rough edges. He's also created a real crack in the Silicon Valley tech community (he was a VC out there in his previous life), and has the populism that might be enough to carry WI, MI and PA. A very smart pick.
Harris was given a huge honeymoon period, and the MSM have been carrying water for her from Day 1. Yet, even now after being the candidate for over two months, she seems ill-prepared to articulate what she plans to do, how she differentiates herself from Biden (most people do not think the last 3.5 years have been good for them economically), and whether she has a clue with respect to China, Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East. That's on her.