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Not sure I understand Trump's movement in the polls

tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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For any of you that have been following, Harris has held a small, but consistent lead over Trump in the polls for about the past 6 weeks. However, in just the past 1.5 weeks, Trump has moved forward over Harris in each of the battleground states, and the betting averages have moved from about 50/50 to about 60/40 in Trump's favor. That's a huge move in a very short amount of time. Honestly, I have no idea why this has happened so abruptly.

This is the Real Clear Politics polling averages for the key battleground states.
The one thing I heard was that when you compare Trump's present numbers against his same numbers at this time in 2016 and 2020, he's up about 2-4% in 2024. What I take from that is, if the polls are similarly undercounting Trump voters (which is a guess, but perhaps true), then Trump has a pretty commanding lead with just 2 weeks to go.

If Trump wins, I attribute it to to at least the following two factors (besides Harris being a moron):

1. Walz was a terrible VP pick. Harris already had MN locked up and really needs PA. Shapiro is the governor of PA, well-liked there, and is actually a coherent, intelligent person who can put two sentences together. The Dems rejected him, and the only reason I can fathom is that he's Jewish, and Harris chickened out. Very stupid move.

2. Vance was an excellent VP pick. Vance has been interviewed on all the MSM talk shows, and has come out looking smart, articulate, prepared, and has smoothed out Trump's rough edges. He's also created a real crack in the Silicon Valley tech community (he was a VC out there in his previous life), and has the populism that might be enough to carry WI, MI and PA. A very smart pick.

Harris was given a huge honeymoon period, and the MSM have been carrying water for her from Day 1. Yet, even now after being the candidate for over two months, she seems ill-prepared to articulate what she plans to do, how she differentiates herself from Biden (most people do not think the last 3.5 years have been good for them economically), and whether she has a clue with respect to China, Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East. That's on her.
 
Yano

Yano

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This is from the same site , It has a chart that shows day by day the polling , perhaps there is something in the news that might hint to whats causing it around the time the lines cross back the other way.

This also gives a break down once you click on the states , and it shows who conducted the polls.

Oh it also shows after you click on the state ,, the polling as well as the MOE , margin of error ,, and most while they have Trump ahead ,, are within the MOE ,,, it is odd I agree with ya.


 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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I think that Obama stepping in to guilt black men into voting for Harris backfired significantly. Dumb move on their part.
It certainly didn't seem to help. However, I don't blame them for trying, as it's always seemed to work for them in the past. Remember how W was a racist, and then McCain was a racist, and then Romney was a racist? It wasn't a sexy move, but it always seemed to be effective.

Is it possible that the tired trope about every single Dem opponent being a racist has finally played out, and isn't getting traction any more? Not really sure. But Trump is making genuine in-roads with both black and hispanic males (and hispanics in general).

I wonder if all the black podcasts and black news sites are helping to fracture the MSM narrative on who is or isn't a racist. I don't think blacks pay much attention to CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC, etc.

Has anyone noticed how Antifa and BLM have gone silent over the past 6 months? I find that very strange, as both groups are "supposed" to be decentralized, autonomous cells. Yet, they've all stayed very quietly on the sidelines in lock-step. Almost like they've been given their marching orders to keep their powder horns dry. (Wouldn't it be nice to see who issues those marching orders). If those groups are "sicced" on the public after the election (IF Trump were to win), does that reflect on Biden/Harris, as they will have the responsibility to squelch it? Or will they let cities burn like they did in Minneapolis, Kenosha, etc. Strange days we live in.
 
Tuffoldman

Tuffoldman

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I was talking to a client today about this exact thing and what he says when somebody questions on polls to him and he always gives the exact opposite answer of what he's going to do. So makes me wonder if a lot of people are just saying they're voting one way but they're actually voting the other to throw the polls off?? Seems silly but possible.


Vance is a very good speaker but didn't he graduate from Yale or something like that I know he's from an ivy League school where all that is very polished public speaking and all. Doesn't change who he is he just looks a lot more intelligent then Trump or Harris or walz.


I actually like walz to start with because he seemed like a genuine and real caring person but he turned around and spit out a bunch of lies also. I don't understand that part of any campaign people are going to find out the world is small with the internet you can find out everything about anybody.
 
1bigun11

1bigun11

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The black chick, married to a white man, accusing black men of being racist solely because they are not voting for her solely because she is black.

SMH
 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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Vance is a very good speaker but didn't he graduate from Yale or something like that I know he's from an ivy League school where all that is very polished public speaking and all. Doesn't change who he is he just looks a lot more intelligent then Trump or Harris or walz.
Vance finished high school and joined the Marine Corps. (as a military journalist... huh? As a military journalist in the corps, you shoot with one hand, and are an a-hole with the other hand! LOL). Then after the corps, he went to college at Ohio State University and then went to Yale Law School. (pretty hard for a white dude to get into Yale today, unless you're wearing a dress and call your Delores). After law school, he got a job in venture capital in Silicon Valley. I know several VCs in the Valley, and there's not a lot of stupid there. LOL

He's impressed me since he was picked. The MSM have gone after him hard, and he's answered questions thoughtfully, and pushed back when needed without coming across as an a-hole.

I thought it was funny when a journalist attacked Vance because Trump had said Venezuelan gangs took over apartment complexes in Aurora, CO, and the journalist fact-checked him by saying, "it was only a handful of apartment complexes." As if that's OK. LOL
 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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The black chick, married to a white man, accusing black men of being racist solely because they are not voting for her solely because she is black.

SMH
"blackish" LOL
then again, she's more a person of color than Obama was....

Vance's family were white trailer trash. But Harris' family is quite interesting, with her father being a Marxist economics professor at Stanford. I wonder if dad agreed with her Medicare for all, her banning of fracking, her funding of bail for BLM protestors that were burning down Minneapolis, and open borders?

 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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Here's James Carville (remember him, the Clinton's attack dog), warning all the voters today that if Trump wins, he and the MSNBC reporter will likely be in the paddy wagon, as Trump wants to destroy democracy.


That's quite ripe for a party that first off rigged the primaries so only Biden could win (ask RFK Jr.), then ousted Biden after he won the Dem primary, then inserted another candidate who hasn't received a single vote. All while they tried to remove Trump from the ballot in numerous states (remember at least CO and Maine) until the Supremes told them to knock it off, then attacked him with lawfare in an attempt to thwart the will of the primary voters. Ah yes, democracy! LOL

It would be funny, if it wasn't so creepy.
 
Yano

Yano

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Here's James Carville (remember him, the Clinton's attack dog), warning all the voters today that if Trump wins, he and the MSNBC reporter will likely be in the paddy wagon, as Trump wants to destroy democracy.


That's quite ripe for a party that first off rigged the primaries so only Biden could win (ask RFK Jr.), then ousted Biden after he won the Dem primary, then inserted another candidate who hasn't received a single vote. All while they tried to remove Trump from the ballot in numerous states (remember at least CO and Maine) until the Supremes told them to knock it off, then attacked him with lawfare in an attempt to thwart the will of the primary voters. Ah yes, democracy! LOL

It would be funny, if it wasn't so creepy.
Carville is fucked and always has been. Tried to be Obamas right and left nut too. Dudes always got some tough guy shit to say , from his house ,, dressed in rainbows and purple .. i dont get it.
 
fasttwitch

fasttwitch

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For any of you that have been following, Harris has held a small, but consistent lead over Trump in the polls for about the past 6 weeks. However, in just the past 1.5 weeks, Trump has moved forward over Harris in each of the battleground states, and the betting averages have moved from about 50/50 to about 60/40 in Trump's favor. That's a huge move in a very short amount of time. Honestly, I have no idea why this has happened so abruptly.

This is the Real Clear Politics polling averages for the key battleground states.
The one thing I heard was that when you compare Trump's present numbers against his same numbers at this time in 2016 and 2020, he's up about 2-4% in 2024. What I take from that is, if the polls are similarly undercounting Trump voters (which is a guess, but perhaps true), then Trump has a pretty commanding lead with just 2 weeks to go.

If Trump wins, I attribute it to to at least the following two factors (besides Harris being a moron):

1. Walz was a terrible VP pick. Harris already had MN locked up and really needs PA. Shapiro is the governor of PA, well-liked there, and is actually a coherent, intelligent person who can put two sentences together. The Dems rejected him, and the only reason I can fathom is that he's Jewish, and Harris chickened out. Very stupid move.

2. Vance was an excellent VP pick. Vance has been interviewed on all the MSM talk shows, and has come out looking smart, articulate, prepared, and has smoothed out Trump's rough edges. He's also created a real crack in the Silicon Valley tech community (he was a VC out there in his previous life), and has the populism that might be enough to carry WI, MI and PA. A very smart pick.

Harris was given a huge honeymoon period, and the MSM have been carrying water for her from Day 1. Yet, even now after being the candidate for over two months, she seems ill-prepared to articulate what she plans to do, how she differentiates herself from Biden (most people do not think the last 3.5 years have been good for them economically), and whether she has a clue with respect to China, Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East. That's on her.

The following day polls were released showing a Kamala increase. I follow this stuff intensely. There are almost too many reasons for these poll fluctuations to get into each one. Each reason is a rabbit hole that would require hours of discussion to delve into.

The numbers are all over the place for a multitude of reasons. And even people who follow these polls for a living are getting exhausted. If you want HONEST discussion of the polls, politics and such you should listen to Breaking Points. Two anti-establishment right wingers and two anti-establishment left wingers who are all friends discuss these things in depth. There is no hypocrisy allowed on this show unlike almost every other show.

There are several things to consider. These are just a few factors in motion.

There have been hundreds of thousands of young Gen Z women who suddenly registered to vote after Roe was overturned.

The independent voters want to turn the page on partisan ugliness. They are overwhelmingly tired of hearing about so called stolen elections.

Blue collar workers are divided on Trump and Kamala. The people who work with their hands are support Trump by about 24% last poll I saw. The blue collar workers who work in service support Kamala by a similar margin. There are more of the service workers.

Trump used to hold a huge edge on the economy over Dems. Now the number is close to equal. Trump still holds a small edge. Most independent voters do not really believe either candidate will work towards their interests.

Trump holds a huge advantage on the issue of immigration. Unfortunately immigration is mainly a right wing high priority issue, especially among men. The left sees it as an issue, too, but it's very low on their list of priories.

There is a MASSIVE gulf between white voters without a college education and white voters with a college education. The white voters without college favor Trump, the voters with college favor Kamala.

There is a massive gulf between the sexes. Trump is favored by men, Kamala by women.

Here is something of notice.. The blue states have been losing college educated liberal voters to the red states. Texas is becoming California-ized. Arizona too. North Carolina is now home to tens of thousands of New York City residents who left during covid when their jobs became remote work.

Remote work is fueling the blue states loss of college educated white workers to red states, people who can leave are leaving for cheaper home prices, lower taxes and warmer weather. They are brings their liberal voting tendencies with them.

Georgia has seen a huge increase in college educated white voters in the last few years.

Nevada is trending red, but slowly.
North Carolina is trending blue quickly.
Texas is trending blue quickly.
Wisconsin is trending red slowly.
Georgia is trending blue slowly.

I bucked the trends again! Lol. I just voted. I wrote in my vote for "Mickey Mouse" as usual. Since both parties once again put forth two unworthy deep state shills.

But the bottom line is, Kamala will win this election. Possibly by a landslide. But if not, fairly soundly. Some of the emerging trends are to slow to affect this election. Texas will turn blue by 2026. Michigan may turn red in 2026.

I challenge other, rather than argue, post up your 270towin.com interactive map here. Lets see who is more accurate. In two weeks we can see who in this group is more close to the results.

270towin.png
 
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tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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^^^^Very good info. Thanks!
 
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