Corona Virus. How much of a threat is it?

[CFM]

Fair to poor health combined with COVID-2 results in a moderate rate of COVID-19.

Let us take a look at "fair health". Would you allow your loved ones to drive a car in "fair condition"? Fair brakes, fair tires, fair wiper blades, fair suspension could be dangerous.

How many people traded in their fast food addiction for home cooked meals of clean proteins, low glycemic carbs, healthy fats? Consuming junk could be dangerous.

All the drive-thru 'restaurants' here have long lines all day. Low nutrition high calorie food could be dangerous.

I've been to the Vitamin Shoppe twice since returning from CA (last 6 weeks) and, as usual, I was the only customer in the store.

I am not seeing more veggies in people's shopping carts, its the same old EBT shit as before.

Poor diet results in, without a doubt: heart disease, diabetes, COPD as the result of high BMI (obesity). Smoking, vaping, drinking, drugging alone or combined with eating like a ignorant fool.........and yes people in "fair" to poor health are.........

 

[1bigun11]

The issue really is economics vs safety. Problem is that many people think it is immoral to engage in placing an economic value on human life. But it is done all the time. Every time a highway engineer decides a speed limit he know that so many people will die if the limit is set at 35 MPH, and many more will die if it is set at 75 MPH. And yet many highways are set at 75. Because safety of human life is not the highest value, nor should it be.

 

[searay]

Don't have the specifics but the additional testing in NYC on people who don't think they have been infected but have with no symptoms was very high. That plus listing most deaths as due to the virus to get the federal funding has made the deaths due to carona way off. If the deaths due to the virus were recorded accurately and the people testing positive with zero symptoms were added into the equation the % of positive to dead would drop significantly.
Does anyone think there may be different strains of the covid-19 causing such a big swing in the outcomes of getting it?

 

[Lizard King]

Here is the update from NY for today:

• New York so far has tested approximately 7,500 people statewide for antibodies to develop a baseline for infection rate. Preliminary results and estimates for the first round of the antibody testing showed that of the total tested, 14.9% were positive for antibodies as of April 27th. As expected, there are higher rates in Long Island, New York City and Westchester/Rockland than in the Upstate Regions. Approximately 25% of those tested in New York City tested positive. The age breakdown remained fairly consistent.

 

[Lizard King]

Some other stats out of NY:

$3.1B in unemployment had been paid out as of Friday April 24th. New York needs help from the feds in order to continue with unemployment payments long term.

Food banks across the state are seeing a surge in demand. In response the State is committing $25M in emergency funding. The State is also asking philanthropies to help

Upstate NY up 40% - 60%
Long Island up 40%
New York City up 100%
Westchester up 200%

 

[enjoy_tren]

Ok, the articles’ 50% claim came from an Icelandic study. There was a link to CNN (haven’t read the actual study but I plan to) which interviewed the scientists who ran the study.

Here is what the researcher said about the findings:

“What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.

"Keep in mind that the screening is now randomized, but voluntary so there is some bias in the data," the Directorate of Health said in a statement, adding that a "randomized screening program has started and a blood serum screening for antibodies is planned."

Which is similar to what I said about the testing on the Navy Carrier. The results are NOT proof that 50% of cases are mild and/or asymptotic.

Again, too early to draw conclusions about how widespread the virus.

Taking headlines at face value doesn’t work. Ever. You must look at the data and interpret the study yourself.

Nowhere did it mention Fauci making any claim.

Today is my day off from the kids. I’m hitting legs and going to the beach. Enjoy your evening. Be discerning in what you read. Don’t trust the headlines. Look at the source material.

I don’t care what anyone’s conclusions are about the current state. I do think it’s important to draw conclusions based on sound evidence, however.

All the data coming in shows theres a large percentage of the population which has the disease and have gone untested for. What that number is is largely irrelevant whether it is 25% or 50%. The original point of view was that the virus does not warrant the stay at home orders which was the point of the doctors in the video. My mentioning the number of asymptomatic carriers was in referance to your comment "12% of all people TESTED were positive does not equate to 12% of the population is positive." That statement works in the favor of what the docs were trying to state. Bottom line is that there is a huge percentage of people that are not tested and have recovered. There is more evidence that favors that statement then not. If I am wrong please provide the data. At the end of the day, this is a bad flu and there is no data proving quarantine works and worth the unintended consequences. I'll be the asshole that says it, but yes it would be worth sacrificing a few lives in order to save the economy

edit: Another study done in LA and Santa Clara show a large number of people with anitbodies. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/health/coronavirus-antibodies-california.html

 

[ITAWOLF]

I will tell u all again

since its said to kill everything but the Wolf

dnp will kill the corona!!!

 

[rawdeal]

Didn't POTUS already tell us that on tv?

 

[woodswise]

All the data coming in shows theres a large percentage of the population which has the disease and have gone untested for. What that number is is largely irrelevant whether it is 25% or 50%. The original point of view was that the virus does not warrant the stay at home orders which was the point of the doctors in the video. My mentioning the number of asymptomatic carriers was in referance to your comment "12% of all people TESTED were positive does not equate to 12% of the population is positive." That statement works in the favor of what the docs were trying to state. Bottom line is that there is a huge percentage of people that are not tested and have recovered. There is more evidence that favors that statement then not. If I am wrong please provide the data. At the end of the day, this is a bad flu and there is no data proving quarantine works and worth the unintended consequences. I'll be the asshole that says it, but yes it would be worth sacrificing a few lives in order to save the economy

edit: Another study done in LA and Santa Clara show a large number of people with anitbodies. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/health/coronavirus-antibodies-california.html

I agree that recent data is showing a much higher number of infected, than shown by the people asking to be tested. That is good news, because it lowers the death rate among those who have had the virus.

But we must remember that when the governments decided to implement social distancing and mandatory stay at home orders, we were looking at a fairly high death rate of 2% and maybe even 5%, and exponential growth in those coming down with the virus. Now in hindsight, we are learning those were not accurate because so many have had it while showing no symptoms. That does not mean social distancing was not a good strategy in light of what we knew at the time. I for one am thankful we have not been hit as hard as we feared.

Now, though, with the new data, I agree it is time to re-think the strategy. Must we continue social distancing in light of the lower death rate and greater number of people who have caught the virus? I think the answer will depend on whether re-opening the economy and ending social distancing is likely to create a new spike in cases that, if it occurs, will overwhelm our medical facilities and staff. From what I have been reading, medical personnell have been working overtime in extremely stressful conditions, to meet the current need. I expect they will not welcome another surge in cases and they might not be able to handle it.

 

[DungeonDweller]

1.) Hospitals never reached capacity, they never ran out of respirators, which was the fear. I don't think many are anywhere near capacity anymore. Aurora of Wisconsin released data 2 weeks ago showing 0 cases in most of their hospitals. Its way less now and the hospital down the street went from 4 at peak to 0 patients and has stayed there.
2.) Hospital and medical employees are on furlough all over the place. If they need more help, bring them back to work.
3.) Antibody testing is hinting we may have a good herd immunity already going on.
4.) My personal doc said that viral lung infections have been common all winter (when I complained of an annoying cough in January). This looks like it started way before the news got slow after impeachment and picked up on it.
5.) Pointed out to a local doomsayer weeks ago that we had 2 Covid deaths and 4 traffic fatalities. Still at 2 covid deaths and cases drying up fast. Easy math on the dangers there.

 

[enjoy_tren]

I agree that recent data is showing a much higher number of infected, than shown by the people asking to be tested. That is good news, because it lowers the death rate among those who have had the virus.

But we must remember that when the governments decided to implement social distancing and mandatory stay at home orders, we were looking at a fairly high death rate of 2% and maybe even 5%, and exponential growth in those coming down with the virus. Now in hindsight, we are learning those were not accurate because so many have had it while showing no symptoms. That does not mean social distancing was not a good strategy in light of what we knew at the time. I for one am thankful we have not been hit as hard as we feared.

Now, though, with the new data, I agree it is time to re-think the strategy. Must we continue social distancing in light of the lower death rate and greater number of people who have caught the virus? I think the answer will depend on whether re-opening the economy and ending social distancing is likely to create a new spike in cases that, if it occurs, will overwhelm our medical facilities and staff. From what I have been reading, medical personnell have been working overtime in extremely stressful conditions, to meet the current need. I expect they will not welcome another surge in cases and they might not be able to handle it.

the question becomes now that we know that the death rate is less than 1%, my question to you would be is that worth the damage the stay at home orders are doing?

From what I know and have heard that hospitals are underwhelmed and hurting for business. In what areas are they overwhelmed besides the nj/ny area?

 

[enjoy_tren]

1.) Hospitals never reached capacity, they never ran out of respirators, which was the fear. I don't think many are anywhere near capacity anymore. Aurora of Wisconsin released data 2 weeks ago showing 0 cases in most of their hospitals. Its way less now and the hospital down the street went from 4 at peak to 0 patients and has stayed there.
2.) Hospital and medical employees are on furlough all over the place. If they need more help, bring them back to work.
3.) Antibody testing is hinting we may have a good herd immunity already going on.
4.) My personal doc said that viral lung infections have been common all winter (when I complained of an annoying cough in January). This looks like it started way before the news got slow after impeachment and picked up on it.
5.) Pointed out to a local doomsayer weeks ago that we had 2 Covid deaths and 4 traffic fatalities. Still at 2 covid deaths and cases drying up fast. Easy math on the dangers there.

x2 on number 4. Went to vegas in Nov and came back with a flu /cough and difficulty breathing. The flu went away in about 4 days, but the cough and shortness of breath was something else and took over 2 weeks to fully get out of my system. I remember calling my wife from the gym and bitching that it was impossible for me to train. I'd be gassed out in 3-4 reps and it fucked my training.