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Corona Virus. How much of a threat is it?

woodswise

woodswise

TID Board Of Directors
Apr 29, 2012
4,306
1,273
I have been doing a lot of reading on the Corona Virus that is sweeping the world right now.

Many people are in a panic about it, and many see the hysteria as foolish or even cynically motivated.

Here are the facts as I have been able to glean them, after reading several pieces by scientists and health organizations.

The current Coronavirus is a new strain of a type of virus in the flu/common cold family of viruses, that is believed to have originated in animals then transmitted to humans in China. It is not uncommon for this to happen, and often the new strain proves to be more fear inspiring than actually harmful. In the present case, though there is cause for concern, we won't know how bad or mild it will prove to be, until it has run its course.

We do know that because it is a new strain that humans have not been exposed to previously, we will not have existing antibodies to fight it. Therefore it is likely to prove significantly more deadly than the normal flu. Early reports suggest a 2% to 3.5% death rate for people who contract it. That statistic is likely to be high, because some people who are exposed do not show any symptoms, and therefore are not being tested for it. In contrast, the death rate from the normal flu virus (to which we have all been exposed, and which mutates within the human population over time into slightly newer versions to which we have not been exposed but still have decent immunity) is 0.1%. To look at something more deadly consider the Spanish Influenza epidemic during WWI, which reportedly had a death rate of 10%. This number, too is likely to be too high because logic and the lack of ability to scientifically test for it would suggest it was likely measured only according to those who caught it and were acutely ill, and that those with normal flu like symptoms (even if a mild case of Spanish Influenza) being regarded as having only normal flu.

Regardless whether the new Corona Virus proves to be truly dealy or not, it is easily controlled with simple steps.

1. Wash your hands often. Soap and water with washing the hands for 20 seconds is best.
2. Wear protective gloves that you throw away after touching handles and other objects in public.
3. Do not touch your face.
4. If you are showing signs of illness stay home.
5. Sneeze or cough into a kleenex and discard it.
6. Sneeze or cough into your elbow if you don't have a kleenex.
7. Avoid hand contact with others, and surfaces that others are likely to touch (doorknobs, buttons for elevators, etc., light switches, etc.). When possible, use your elbows or knuckles to touch those surfaces.

We do know the incubation time is 4 to 14 days for the virus. So if you were exposed to someone with the virus, you should watch for symptoms for about 14 days and avoid going to crowded places or other public places until it is clear you did not contract it.
 
S

SilverFox

Senior Member
Oct 31, 2018
125
105
Most household disinfectants kill it as well so wiping down surfaces with a product such as Lysol Wipes certainly does help in controlling the virus as it can live for several days on hard surfaces. Even cash can harbor the virus.
 
R

rawdeal

TID Board Of Directors
Nov 29, 2013
3,560
2,501
Watching this thread for information, AND from a distance for sanity. Have seen Corona Virus threads descend into political threads with the expected levels of attendant anger. Maybe that won't happen here, but like the sage said, "we'll see what happens."
 
BackAtIt

BackAtIt

MuscleHead
Oct 3, 2016
2,185
665
I've been "clinching" every time I see someone sneezing or coughing, even wiping their nose...Haven't got to the stage of wearing a mask yet...I'm gonna rely on my ole IS and take a few extra mg's of C...
 
BackAtIt

BackAtIt

MuscleHead
Oct 3, 2016
2,185
665


Here is an email sent to me by one of our local hospitals...Thought it was interesting how they felt it necessary to try and clear themselves...













Preparing for Coronavirus​


Coronavirus (COVID-19) has raised alarms worldwide as the virus continues to spread. Since COVID-19 was first identified, scientists, medical professionals and healthcare officials have been working hard, and at unprecedented speeds, to help halt its spread.

We want you to know that Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare (TMH) is prepared to provide the most appropriate level of care for our community. As of noon on Friday, March 6, TMH has evaluated three patients for coronavirus. Based on our screening tools and protocol, they did not meet the criteria for COVID-19 and were discharged. The information circulating on social media about TMH having a patient with coronavirus in isolation within the hospital is false. As an organization, we are following the protocol outlined by the CDC and are in communication with the Leon County Department of Health. If a patient were to be tested and assumed or confirmed positive for the coronavirus, an announcement would be made to the public just as the other confirmed cases in the state of Florida have been announced.

You’re most likely concerned about keeping yourself and family healthy and safe. It’s important to understand key precautions and follow recommendations put forth by the Center for Disease Control (CDC).

We encourage you to take the same safety measures (which are the same steps you would follow to prevent the spread of the flu):

  • Wash your hand frequently for 20 seconds with soap and water
  • Avoid touching your face with unwashed hands
  • Cover your mouth with the crook of your elbow or a tissue when you cough or sneeze

I want to be tested for COVID-19. What should I do?
Only the Health Department in conjunction with the CDC can authorize whether to test a patient. Patients must meet the clinical criteria for COVID-19 to be tested. Contact the Florida Department of Health (DOH) at [email protected] or
1-866-779-6121 for additional information.

Who decides which patients will be tested for COVID-19?
TMH does not decide who will be tested. The Department of Health will review each patient and decide if they meet the criteria for screening. Upon authorization, we will collect the samples and follow the protocol for collection including packaging of the samples for shipment to the Florida Department of Health laboratory.

I believe I have COVID-19. What should I do?
If you develop a fever and symptoms of respiratory illness, such as cough or difficulty breathing, and have been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19 or if you live in or have recently traveled to an area with ongoing spread you should call your healthcare provider in advance and tell them that you may have COVID-19. Additionally, you should wear a face mask when you are around other people to prevent others from exposure.

In most cases, patients will experience minimal issues and the CDC asks that they quarantine themselves and convalesce at home. Patients in respiratory distress should present to an emergency department.

How will I know if we have a confirmed case of COVID-19 in our community?
If a patient is confirmed to have COVID-19 and presents at TMH, we will, in conjunction with the Department of Health, release this information to the community in full transparency.

To explore resources, get answers to more questions and learn how to prevent, prepare and plan for COVID-19, visit TMH.ORG/Coronavirus.















Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare | 1300 Miccosukee Road, Tallahassee, FL 32308​
 
Pooh6369

Pooh6369

Senior Member
Oct 13, 2019
111
112
Kinda not buying into the hype, maybe I'm be naive on it. Now if my mom who's 84 gets it I'm really concerned giving how it elderly are dying from it
 
Jin

Jin

VIP Member
Jun 15, 2018
818
807
Solid write up.

One correction: incubation period has been demonstrated at up to 27 days.

Virus spreads/sheds from infected person during the incubation period. Some people have the disease but are asymptotic. They too can spread the virus.

If you think you have the virus DO NOT GO TO THE HOSPITAL. self isolate unless you are having trouble breathing.

The healthcare system will be overburdened. Don’t add to that unnecessarily.
Also- hospital is the best place to pick up the virus.

Virus kills via ARDS. It doesn’t come on suddenly. You’ll have time to get yourself mechanical intervention if needed.

Call ahead if you must go to the hospital. Ask what protocol to follow.
 
R

rawdeal

TID Board Of Directors
Nov 29, 2013
3,560
2,501
That "One correction ........" sentence is worth the price of admission right there. I have been one of the many who believed it was about 14 days.

For those who actually like fact-driven discussion but do not yet know Jin, you will get more facts from him than from some well known people in the news who are trying to spin the current health threat. He is here too infrequently, but I visit his home board to update myself on this subject.
 
Jin

Jin

VIP Member
Jun 15, 2018
818
807
The corona virus is a very real threat and will impact the lives of everyone in the US (and most people on the globe eventually).

I can’t do a better job of explaining it than this engineer has. Read her entire thread.


Viruses grow exponentially. Humans think linearly.

The general public is not ready for what’s about to happen.
 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

Senior Moderators
Staff Member
Dec 25, 2010
5,718
3,799
I don't want to minimize this issue, but the latest info is that in the US the expected fatality rate is between about 0.1 to 1.0%.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...c4cdfc-5efc-11ea-b014-4fafa866bb81_story.html

As the standard flu in the US has an annual mortality rate of 0.1%, it's clear that corona virus is more dangerous than the regular flu, but I'm not sure that it's cause for global panic. We certainly want to do all that we can to minimize its spread, but it's my opinion that the panic is a bit overblown at the moment.
 
Jin

Jin

VIP Member
Jun 15, 2018
818
807
I don't want to minimize this issue, but the latest info is that in the US the expected fatality rate is between about 0.1 to 1.0%.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...c4cdfc-5efc-11ea-b014-4fafa866bb81_story.html

As the standard flu in the US has an annual mortality rate of 0.1%, it's clear that corona virus is more dangerous than the regular flu, but I'm not sure that it's cause for global panic. We certainly want to do all that we can to minimize its spread, but it's my opinion that the panic is a bit overblown at the moment.
I cannot access that page as I am out of country.

Can you post a link to any data cited in the article?
 
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