Day Trading or Long term?

[JR Ewing]

If you can fog a mirror you have the same chance at succeeding in the stock market as the so called "professionals" I was in this industry for many years and have come to the conclusion its all a rigged game. The people who make the real money have inside info or know waht laws are going to be passed, rates are going to do, ect. I believe your best bet is to Invest in Precious medals as the dollar could become even more of a flop. The Federal Reserve is merely nothing more than a ponzi scheme and is about as "federal" as Federal Express. printing off money at record speed is not a good sign

I've been investing for nearly 2 decades and playing with other people's money as well for about half that time. I've come to the conclusion that to succeed, most need to think longer term, have realistic expectations, not get greedy, keep their ego in check, be careful who they listen to, and learn to manage risk.

Too many people expect to make triple digit returns every year or whatever. And expect to never have a losing month, quarter or year. Or want to listen to the guy at the bar who tells them to load up on 1 or 2 securities, or the ponzi schemer who "guarantees" them 12% or more a year tax free with no short term risk, or whatever.

And for others, it's purely ego - they're convinced they will be the best ever, and that the top guys who made 20-30% a year over many decades off mostly traditional bottom-up investing aren't as good as they will be. They'll often continue doing what they're doing to the point of going broke, then they'll bitch about it being "rigged".

Most people don't want to hear that if they invest for very long, they won't likely do any better than the world's top investors who mostly average "only" 20-30% a year over many decades. They don't realize that even if they "only" average 15% themselves over 30 years, they will increase the value of their initial investment roughly 60 times over. And they'll make far more if they continue to put money in every paycheck.

 

[JR Ewing]

Ego is a big one to hammer down. I see it on the financial forums out of the majority of the traders.
It's no wonder most lose at this game.

Post of the year right here!

I don't care about being "right", and I don't care how I have to go about preserving my capital and making money with it - as long as I'm not breaking the law. I don't care about "cool" or "sexy" or "lame" strategies. I only care about keeping and making money.

 

[GLISSMAN]

cjt- waht types of commod do you tend to focus on?

 

[NWO]

DEX- Not to be offensive but I believe It surly is gambling. Not your typical Roulette wheel but a form of it. Anything where you put your money up to where you can gain/lose on it is a gamble. Ive had years where ive done great and years when ive lost. I chalk it up to guesswork and maybe I am jsut a shitty trader:-( I atill believe the markets are rigged, how can they not be? They are printing money off at record rate, our economys on life support. just watch... when countries want to switch to a different petro/world dollar the market is going to crash and i believe we will all lose. As history suggests your best investment is still physical gold and silver. Fiat currency is built on "trust" and although I love my country I dont trust the monetary system or the govt.

 

[C T J]

cjt- waht types of commod do you tend to focus on?

I'll trade Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Soy, Coffee, Cocoa futures, etc.

I will pretty much trade anything as long as my edge(s) is present.

I watch 20+ futures instruments.

 

[C T J]

DEX- Not to be offensive but I believe It surly is gambling.

There are patterns in the market the repeat themselves over and over. There's a myriad of them but you don't know when that edge is going to make you a profit. In other words, you don't know when your edge is going to show up in your favor. Casinos don't know ahead of time if a whale is going to take a large sum of money from them. They can't predict that but what they can predict is that they have an edge in blackjack and will make 4% on all money traded at just one table over the course of the entire year. They don't care if one day a whale takes a lot of money or he does it for several days because they know over time, their edge will produce profits. That's the professional traders mindset. risk/position/psyche management depending, I am the casino.

Also, you can be a 50/50 trader. You don't have to have a high winning % to be successful. All you need is a profit factor over 1.
I range between 55-75 winning % each month but have a profit factor between 2 and 5. That means for every 1 dollar risked, I make between 2 and 5. I'm at 4.69 with 57% this month whereas in January I was only 1.5 but with 75% wins. On the year, I'm at 64% with a profit factor of 2. That's my trading style. Others may only win 30% of the time but have a profit factor of 4:1. These traders are also very successful (given they can do it year after year).

 

[NWO]

After reading all the info posted by you guys I am leaning towards the fact it not being so much a gamble anymore, jsut needed a little education on the subject i guess. CJT- I have an aaccount with a firm that trades futures for me on the CBOT, il dig up the paperwork and see what the Co. name is. What is the mini contract on silver futures cost today....the one that lets you contol 1000 Oz. of silver? when i did it was $6500 I believe. I mostly focused on trading soybeans and live cattle when i was into it more. what do you think the silver price will do over the course of the next year.. would like to talk to you more on this subject in porivate. Would like to eventually switch to a diffferent broker, the one I used I feel was pushing his bigger traders losses off on me at times.

 

[Dex]

You can't win all the time but you can always set yourself up to win. Good trades don't always work but if you manage your losses you can always make money. If I just went long or short at any given moment then that is gambling. I wait for the odds to be in my favor. I made money Monday through Thursday last week and lost money Friday. I'd consider that a damn good week

 

[Ms.Wetback]

Here is one for you.

VPLM ..........we bought 3MM shares 15 months ago at .008 and will ride this to the buyout at $2.50-$3.50 All patents are approved and negotiations to sell the company have begun.

And we have made hundreds of thousands of dollars with them

Long term BRK.B is awesome for a conservative approach.

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[Ms.Wetback]

One thing I never have traded is futures. Just never got the swing of it.
How do you like it?

We do a lot of private funding and SPA's directly with companies.

I'll trade Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Soy, Coffee, Cocoa futures, etc.

I will pretty much trade anything as long as my edge(s) is present.

I watch 20+ futures instruments.

 

[C T J]

After reading all the info posted by you guys I am leaning towards the fact it not being so much a gamble anymore, jsut needed a little education on the subject i guess. CJT- I have an aaccount with a firm that trades futures for me on the CBOT, il dig up the paperwork and see what the Co. name is. What is the mini contract on silver futures cost today....the one that lets you contol 1000 Oz. of silver? when i did it was $6500 I believe.

Silver is $11,000/contract unless you are with a discount broker who only requires a sliver of that for day margins.
It changes frequently though. A few months ago and silver was $6,000.

 

[C T J]

One thing I never have traded is futures. Just never got the swing of it.
How do you like it?

We do a lot of private funding and SPA's directly with companies.

I switched to futures after a year of stocks. Haven't looked back.
However, the fractals in all markets are nearly the same.
In other words, the game is the same. I have my strategies running
through the stock market by a friend. Same game, slightly different look/feel.