Just for fun.. I ran a different simulation based on the early vote results so far in swing states. White suburban women are a huge factor in the early vote. The are coming out to vote in numbers far exceeding men. These are the same people who continued voting for Nikki Hailey 6 WEEKS AFTER HAILEY DROPPED OUT.
20% of white, suburban Republican women in Pennsylvania voted for Hailey 6 weeks after Hailey dropped out.
Seems unlikely that a whole 20% of Republican women are voting for Kamala, but 10% is easy to imagine. But if 20% do break for Kamala, then this election will be a landslide for Kamala. IF, and I mean IF the white suburban Republican women are breaking for Kamala by the same percentage, then the electoral map will look like this, below: