Not sure I understand Trump's movement in the polls

[Rider]

@tommyguns2 the shift began a few weeks ago when Elon went on stage publicly with Trump. They generated much attention from folks that don’t normally watch a Trump rally. Elon has a massive following.

Next, Kamala’s interview with Bret Bair went horrible. She showed no joy, just resentment toward Trump. Constantly invoking him and she couldn’t answer what she’d do differently than what’s she’s been doing while in power these last 3+ years. In fact, she came off as nasty to Bret who was respectful imho. It also confirmed Kamala can’t handle a real interview with basic questions.

Then there was Trump’s work day McDonald’s. Kamala lied about working at McDonald’s to make herself more appealing. It was bullshit, and she still hasn’t provided proof. McDonald’s even confirmed they have no record of her working there. Frankly, Trump doing it was another massive news generator. Plus it was funny and then he went to the Pittsburgh football game afterward and the fans loved it.

 

[tommyguns2]

Here's my best guess on the map:

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/lr9r2

I think NC and GA, along with NV and AZ will go Trump. WI, MI and PA are the big ??? to me. I don't think either Trump or Harris will get all three.

 

[tommyguns2]

I find it interesting that Elon Musk would have a big influence, but I need to start thinking differently. About 95% of the voters are already locked in. The big question is exactly who are the 5% of potential voters who haven't decided? Are they genuine independents? Are they new voters who've never bothered to participate previously? I have no idea.

 

[fasttwitch]

I find it interesting that Elon Musk would have a big influence, but I need to start thinking differently. About 95% of the voters are already locked in. The big question is exactly who are the 5% of potential voters who haven't decided? Are they genuine independents? Are they new voters who've never bothered to participate previously? I have no idea.

I think Elon is having little influence. The spectacle of the richest man on Earth bribing people to vote for his guy and putting 50 million into Trumps campaign per month, turns off many independent and non-partisan voters. In America in 2024 people are tired of the oligarch elites having such a large influence.

After the Elon / Trump discussion in which Elon and Trump joked about the pleasures of Union busting, many working people were a little turned off. Elon and Trump laughed about how they would do anything instead of pay their workers a fair wage.

Trump could still win. But he has only one route, promise to implement populist policies. Not just say it, but make a contract to do it. Trump though has gone done the insanity rabbitholes his sons pushed him into. If I were Trump, I would distance myself from Eric and Don Junior. Those two guys are torpedoing their dad. Trump HAD savvy political instincts in 2015/2016. He spoke to the pain people were feeling. Their fears about the future. But these instincts have been corrupted by focusing on fringe cultural issues.

So I challenge everyone here to put forth your 270towin.com map. It's easy. Then the day after election day we can see who was the most accurate.

Heads up.. I go two states wrong in 2020. In 2020 I had North Carolina and Georgia flipped. But this year North Carolina Repubs are running a guy who is alleged to have called himself a "black Nazi." And said he wants to bring back slavery. Hmm.. Not sure about you guys, but I wonder if that will rattle the massive black population there? Georgia meanwhile saw the Atlanta deep blue area see the large early voting surge in US history.

 

[Rider]

So I challenge everyone here to put forth your 270towin.com map. It's easy. Then the day after election day we can see who was the most accurate.

Heads up.. I go two states wrong in 2020. In 2020 I had North Carolina and Georgia flipped. But this year North Carolina Repubs are running a guy who is alleged to have called himself a "black Nazi." And said he wants to bring back slavery. Hmm.. Not sure about you guys, but I wonder if that will rattle the massive black population there? Georgia meanwhile saw the Atlanta deep blue area see the large early voting surge in US history.

All right, here’s the current betting market map less than 14 days out. This is real people’s money and it’s unperturbed by “all” the news networks trying to make it appear like a close race with their bullshit biased polling used to increase their tv ratings… Quite different than the public polls right?

 

[1bigun11]

At some point both political parties need to come to terms with the fact that the vast majority of the “undecideds” decided a long time ago that neither of these parties are capable of putting forth a fit candidate, and that they would rather just sit this one out that endorse either one of them.

 

[fasttwitch]

All right, here’s the current betting market map less than 14 days out. This is real people’s money and it’s unperturbed by “all” the news networks trying to make it appear like a close race with their bullshit biased polling used to increase their tv ratings… Quite different than the public polls right?

View attachment 15508

Lol.. Time will tell right??

I have to add, the fact the Trump supporters are buying this horseshit is a large part of the reason Trump supporters will be shocked at the results. Trump's people are counting on his supporters buying this nonsense so they can then make the argument that the election was rigged. This map you are showing presupposes EVERY SINGLE battleground state going to Trump.

Here is the reality.. for decades the polls undercounted Republicans. But since 2020 the polls are undercounting Dems. Some of this is an overcorrection. Some of this is the changing demographics. A large part is the revulsion of the majority against Trump.

This is not the correct map. But again, lets not argue. In two weeks one of us will be very wrong.

 

[fasttwitch]

Interesting. Manipulation of the betting markets.

"
This comes amid heightened scrutiny of Polymarket's U.S. political markets, which has seen massive bets placed by a few high-rolling traders.

One of the most notable traders, using the username Fredi9999, has wagered over $18 million on Republican outcomes, including nearly $13 million on Trump's return to the White House.

This account is the largest bettor in Polymarket's presidential election market and is also the platform's most profitable account to date.

Blockchain analysts, including those from research firm Arkham Intelligence and sleuths from social media platforms like X (formerly known as Twitter), have suggested that Fredi9999 may be linked to three other accounts, all of which have placed significant bets on Republican victories.

Together, these accounts have spent more than $43 million on Polymarket.

Despite the substantial sums being wagered, none of these accounts are based in the U.S., as confirmed by the source.

Polymarket's market for betting on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has become its most popular offering, with more than $2.2 billion in trading volume to date.

https://www.benzinga.com/events/digital-assets/
"

Polymarket To Review User Base In Light Of Whales Betting Millions On Trump Election Win

Polymarket is verifying user details to ensure compliance with regulations as large bets are being placed on Trump's win. U.S. users are banned.

www.benzinga.com

 

[fasttwitch]

I have no dog in this fight. But it is always astonishing to me that people will allow their biases to control their beliefs. We all want so bad to believe the things that comfort us.

 

[Rider]

Interesting. Manipulation of the betting markets.

"
This comes amid heightened scrutiny of Polymarket's U.S. political markets, which has seen massive bets placed by a few high-rolling traders.

One of the most notable traders, using the username Fredi9999, has wagered over $18 million on Republican outcomes, including nearly $13 million on Trump's return to the White House.

This account is the largest bettor in Polymarket's presidential election market and is also the platform's most profitable account to date.

Blockchain analysts, including those from research firm Arkham Intelligence and sleuths from social media platforms like X (formerly known as Twitter), have suggested that Fredi9999 may be linked to three other accounts, all of which have placed significant bets on Republican victories.

Together, these accounts have spent more than $43 million on Polymarket.

Despite the substantial sums being wagered, none of these accounts are based in the U.S., as confirmed by the source.

Polymarket's market for betting on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has become its most popular offering, with more than $2.2 billion in trading volume to date.

https://www.benzinga.com/events/digital-assets/
"

Polymarket To Review User Base In Light Of Whales Betting Millions On Trump Election Win

Polymarket is verifying user details to ensure compliance with regulations as large bets are being placed on Trump's win. U.S. users are banned.

www.benzinga.com

Okay so if Polymarket is being manipulated how about we take RealClearPolitics aggregate average of multiple betting websites that show similar results:

 

[testboner]

Which is better; a swirly ice cream cone shaped turd — or a log?

 

[fasttwitch]

Okay so if Polymarket is being manipulated how about we take RealClearPolitics aggregate average of multiple betting websites that show similar results:

I hear you. But these are betting markets. People looking to make money. If somebody bets Trump (the underdog) and wins, they make a lot of money. This is not hard data. The only hard data can be asking a large amount of people based on an accurate cross section of their geographical regions. And then weighting the data for bias.

I haven't looked at betting markets for years. This is speculation,

Nothing is perfect for sure, but a good average like 538 is a far better. On 538 you are seeing a weighted average based on non-partisan polls and even partisan polls which have been assessed for their past accuracy. If a poll is consistently wrong then the poll is removed from the 538 average. It is worth mentioning that 538 currently shows many more Republican internal polls than Democratic internal polls.

Here is another problem,.. A factor that not being counted. People who have never voted are not in these polls. The polls mostly count previous voters. Since Roe was overturned there has been a huge surge in Gen Z women registering to vote. Several hundred THOUSAND Gen Z women have felt the need to rush out and get registered to vote for this first time. So much so that in Kansas, one of the deepest red states in the USA, they accounted for 50% of all new voter registrations. Consequently, Kansas, again a deep red state, enshrined the right to abortion. Same thing in Ohio.

This will be a super close election in the battleground states. It's hard to see exactly what will happen. But statistically Trump's path to victory is extremely hard. Kamala, according to 270towin,com is already approaching 250 with the safe blue states. She only needs a couple of the battleground states. Trump needs a miracle. And this is not 2016. In 2016 Hillary (being the fucktart she is) decided not to bother with the rustbelt. She thought those were forever safe Dem states. Trump traveled tirelessly though the rust belt. Constantly campaigning. The results were he won by less than 15,000 votes. The Dems are not making that mistake again.

Again, I urge everyone (most of you are Trump supporters) to steel yourself. You are probably going to wake up the day after the election and be very surprised and upset.