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Not sure I understand Trump's movement in the polls

fasttwitch

fasttwitch

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Very nice! I would add a couple things. Add in the Minsk Agreements, particularly 2014 for context to current conflict. Also add the impact of cold Russian winters. Maybe read Napoleon's buttons.
True! Those cold Russian winters have been Russia's secret weapon. Hitler and Napoleon learned the hard way.
 
Yano

Yano

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Lol.. So true. My Russian friend Vlado says this all the time. That the American cowboy is actually a diabetic slob.
They will call Hardbass Police on you cyka !! (Grandfather on my mother's side , Don Cossack ,, we stopped the Mongols :cool: )

 
fasttwitch

fasttwitch

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The most accurate poll (historically shown to be on the mark predicting election trends) in the Unites States is showing Kamala leading by 3% in deep red Iowa. Women over 60 are voting 3 to 1 for Kamala.

 
Yano

Yano

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The most accurate poll (historically shown to be on the mark predicting election trends) in the Unites States is showing Kamala leading by 3% in deep red Iowa. Women over 60 are voting 3 to 1 for Kamala.

Watch quite a bit of Bulwark just for Tim Miller's input due to him once being a Republican operator and having some unique insight into things from that perspective.

He isn't the average "marxist communist lib".
 
fasttwitch

fasttwitch

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Somebody explain to me why Trump just did a simulated blowjob on stage? I did not watch the whole thing in context. What was he doing pretending to suck dick?

of all the crazy things I have ever seen, I'm never seen anything like Trump simulating a blowjob!
 
Yano

Yano

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Somebody explain to me why Trump just did a simulated blowjob on stage? I did not watch the whole thing in context. What was he doing pretending to suck dick?
OK here is my take on this debacle ... quick answer is my opinion only , the old geezer has no self or spatial awareness.

Long story .. he had mic problems from jump , was using a hand held mic. An was describing walking up to the mic an talking into a dead mic haaahahah .. what it looked like was a fucking blowjob .. and he has so little self awareness that until the crowd burst out laughing and snapping pics ,, I honestly don't think he knew what it would look like ,, he was just in his "weave"

Even shorter story ,, the man is an idiot.
 
fasttwitch

fasttwitch

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Tommy, I'm curious about something.

I asked myself a question and I'm curious how you would answer the same question. I asked myself, if I have a blind spot in thinking about this election, if perhaps a group of people are not being calculated in the polls, what would it be? My answer to myself is that perhaps I could be missing independent voters' anger at Biden / Harris over the economy and maybe I am mis-reading the extent to which independent voters blame Harris for the economy and how much better they feel Trump would be on economic matters. My thinking has been that the economy is mixed. My trust fund is booming. My friends who own businesses cannot find enough good workers. My blue collar friends gripe.. But honestly, these same people always gripe. I see some good and some bad happening. So good, bad and neutral aspects for the economy can be seen. I also think that if people feel the economy is "bad." it's not so clear to me that independent voters blame or give credit to either party. I honestly believe that most voters probably understand that the party in charge cannot be given all the credit or blame.

But I accept that I could be wrong. Maybe independent voters really do lay all the blame on the Dems? So I consider this my blind spot, it I have one. In 2016 I did not see the rust belt voting for Trump. Because here in Florida things were going well economically. If my prediction is off it's probably because I missed the independent voters blaming Biden / Harris.

I could also be missing something about immigration. My thinking has been the immigration seems to be a major issue for conservatives. Independents mention it as an issue, but it's way down on their list of concerns. Liberals even call it a concern. But on their priorities' list, it is low.

If you (or any guys reading this) have a blind spot, what would it be?
 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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Dec 25, 2010
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^^^This is a great question. I think one of my big blind spots is that I regularly underplay the impact of Trump's juvenile behavior, particularly on independent voters that may hold the key to this election. I can't tell you how many people tell me that they wish Trump would just shut up, or they say they're going to hold their nose and vote GOP. But how many people are saying, once Harris gets in, I won't have to hear anymore from that gasbag. If that number is sufficiently high, he's cooked, and it's his own darn fault.

He's an odd bird. In some instances he has some pretty good political instincts. I thought the McDonald's gig and the garbage truck schtick was funny, but would I have recommended he spend his precious time on what I think is a stunt? Probably not, and I would have been wrong. Then other times he'll pull some stupid thing, and I'm wondering if he's a complete retard. LOL

I'm very interested to see how the actual vote results compare to the final polls, particularly in the battleground states. I'm interested to see what the final tally is in WI, MI, PA, AZ, GA, NC, NV. The poll services have significant incentives to fix the problems/inaccuracies they've had in the 2016 and 2020 elections. I just don't know if it's possible today. With so many likely registered voters having solely cell phones, and with the significant lack of participation rate in polls, how do the poll services obtain a meaningful sample? That's not a criticism of them or a claim of bias, just an inherent difficulty.
 
Littleguy

Littleguy

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Sep 30, 2011
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I still see myself as the guy on top...........
Lol.. So true. My Russian friend Vlado says this all the time. That the American cowboy is actually a diabetic slob
 
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