fasttwitch
VIP Member
- Mar 17, 2011
- 1,049
- 1,333
This is yet another situation that is partially caused by Reagan. Reagan looked Gorbechev in the eye and promised him that the US would not try to encircle Russia in the future. This is Russia's greatest fear.
Through the last 600 years armies keep invading Russia. Russia is mostly flat plains.. Few mountains, rivers, bogs, natural barriers are few. Nothing to stop advancing armies. So Mongolia, China, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Poland, France and other affiliated armies throughout history keep rolling into Russia. Russia does not have the population to protect their huge borders. They have twice the landmass of America with half the population. It is difficult to stop advancing armies. Especially to the west. In the west of Russia there is a 6000 mile border bordering the historically technologically superior west that is nearly impossible to defend.
To say the Russians are concerned about this is an understatement.
If the Russians push forward a bit to the west and southwest a bit they can move past the flat plains and up to water and mountainous regions and the borders that then need protecting go from 6000 to 600 miles to defend. The west is trying to maximize Russian vulnerability by encircling the Russian. The Russians are trying to minimize their vulnerability.
This is nothing new for the Russian and surrounding countries.. This happens on average once or twice per century for the last 600 years.
If the Unites States was an honorable country they would have kept their promise.
The United States realizes that they can severely and permanently weaken Russian through this proxy war. Why? Russia, like South Korea, Japan, Germany, China, Italy is aging to rapidly. Russia, like the other countries will soon not have enough young military age men to secure their borders. Russia has some of the worst demographics in the world. Russia currently has less than 10 million military aged men. At least men at the ideal military age.
The United States knows it can cripple Russia if it can kill off a few million Russian young men. This is the cynical reason the United States is interested in the war. They want to damage Russia and eliminate Russia and ultimately attempt to force Russia to dissolve.
Also worth noting that Russia contains 200 different ethnicities. Think the USA is an ethic nation? Nothing even close to Russia. For Russia, trying to get the ethnicities to stay cohesive is major work. This is also the reason that capitalism is impossible in Russia. Russia needs to provide for all regions to hold the country together. But Russia is so huge, so mostly lacking in population, that Moscow has to subsidize areas that cannot product enough to feed their local populations. Think about communities in central Russia 1000 miles away from an abundant source of water. Russia has the responsibility to provide for those people, despite the fact it is not profitable to do so. So Moscow must rob Peter to pay Paul. Continually. So the Russian system is built like this, heavy subsidizing and basically having to force things to work. Otherwise, there is starvation and chaos. If these places were in the United States they would be left to die. In the United States nothing is done that does not somehow contribute to the corporate bottom lines.
This is why Russia was so open to communism. Communism did not care as much about economic efficiency. The Soviets FORCED the system to function. It was much better than the feudal system it replaced. In the Unites States we were a young country. People ventured across the land and settled where it was profitable to settle. The Russian ethic minorities do not have that luxury. They are where their ancestors are. And the Russian state has to deal with it. Or face chaos.
The Unites States has continually pushed to encircle to Russia to weaken Russia. Not saying that Ukraine should be attacked. But understanding why Russia is doing this might help stop this war. Countries do not act the way they act in a vacuum. Russia feels this war is necessary to protect their national identity and borders in the long run.
I follow this issue intensely. Here is who I read and listen to on the issue if any of you are interested in this.
John Mearsheimer (bias favoring Russia)
The Caspian Report (no bias detected)
Peter Zeihan (bias favoring Ukraine)
William Spaniel (he is an academic. He has zero bias. He gives no value judgments. He studies this conflict from a purely analytical perspective)
Cyrus Jannsen (bias favoring Russia)
William Spaniel is the best on this issue since he does not do right vs wrong, good vs bad. His analysis is only about the strategic thinking and Machiavellian perspectives of nation states. He adds a Bayesian Game Theory analysis, assigning probabilistic math to his theories.
Through the last 600 years armies keep invading Russia. Russia is mostly flat plains.. Few mountains, rivers, bogs, natural barriers are few. Nothing to stop advancing armies. So Mongolia, China, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Poland, France and other affiliated armies throughout history keep rolling into Russia. Russia does not have the population to protect their huge borders. They have twice the landmass of America with half the population. It is difficult to stop advancing armies. Especially to the west. In the west of Russia there is a 6000 mile border bordering the historically technologically superior west that is nearly impossible to defend.
To say the Russians are concerned about this is an understatement.
If the Russians push forward a bit to the west and southwest a bit they can move past the flat plains and up to water and mountainous regions and the borders that then need protecting go from 6000 to 600 miles to defend. The west is trying to maximize Russian vulnerability by encircling the Russian. The Russians are trying to minimize their vulnerability.
This is nothing new for the Russian and surrounding countries.. This happens on average once or twice per century for the last 600 years.
If the Unites States was an honorable country they would have kept their promise.
The United States realizes that they can severely and permanently weaken Russian through this proxy war. Why? Russia, like South Korea, Japan, Germany, China, Italy is aging to rapidly. Russia, like the other countries will soon not have enough young military age men to secure their borders. Russia has some of the worst demographics in the world. Russia currently has less than 10 million military aged men. At least men at the ideal military age.
The United States knows it can cripple Russia if it can kill off a few million Russian young men. This is the cynical reason the United States is interested in the war. They want to damage Russia and eliminate Russia and ultimately attempt to force Russia to dissolve.
Also worth noting that Russia contains 200 different ethnicities. Think the USA is an ethic nation? Nothing even close to Russia. For Russia, trying to get the ethnicities to stay cohesive is major work. This is also the reason that capitalism is impossible in Russia. Russia needs to provide for all regions to hold the country together. But Russia is so huge, so mostly lacking in population, that Moscow has to subsidize areas that cannot product enough to feed their local populations. Think about communities in central Russia 1000 miles away from an abundant source of water. Russia has the responsibility to provide for those people, despite the fact it is not profitable to do so. So Moscow must rob Peter to pay Paul. Continually. So the Russian system is built like this, heavy subsidizing and basically having to force things to work. Otherwise, there is starvation and chaos. If these places were in the United States they would be left to die. In the United States nothing is done that does not somehow contribute to the corporate bottom lines.
This is why Russia was so open to communism. Communism did not care as much about economic efficiency. The Soviets FORCED the system to function. It was much better than the feudal system it replaced. In the Unites States we were a young country. People ventured across the land and settled where it was profitable to settle. The Russian ethic minorities do not have that luxury. They are where their ancestors are. And the Russian state has to deal with it. Or face chaos.
The Unites States has continually pushed to encircle to Russia to weaken Russia. Not saying that Ukraine should be attacked. But understanding why Russia is doing this might help stop this war. Countries do not act the way they act in a vacuum. Russia feels this war is necessary to protect their national identity and borders in the long run.
I follow this issue intensely. Here is who I read and listen to on the issue if any of you are interested in this.
John Mearsheimer (bias favoring Russia)
The Caspian Report (no bias detected)
Peter Zeihan (bias favoring Ukraine)
William Spaniel (he is an academic. He has zero bias. He gives no value judgments. He studies this conflict from a purely analytical perspective)
Cyrus Jannsen (bias favoring Russia)
William Spaniel is the best on this issue since he does not do right vs wrong, good vs bad. His analysis is only about the strategic thinking and Machiavellian perspectives of nation states. He adds a Bayesian Game Theory analysis, assigning probabilistic math to his theories.
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