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Not sure I understand Trump's movement in the polls

fasttwitch

fasttwitch

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^^^^ Will be interesting to see if this theory plays out. My daughter falls in this age group, and when we were visiting her in Chicago last month she started talking politics with us (I never bring up politics with family!)

It was interesting. She voted for Biden in 2020, and she indicated she was voting Republican in 2024 (funny, she had to qualify her comments by saying she wishes Trump wasn't such an ass! LOL) When I asked her why, it was two things: inflation and the border. Things have gotten a LOT more expensive for young people right out of school over the past 4 years (groceries, gas, utilities, rent, etc), and places like Chicago have tons of homeless people and immigrant crime spikes due to the wide-open border. I don't know if she's representative or not, but it was interesting to hear her thoughts.

She actually said: "I feel like the Dems manipulated by empathy." I'm glad she has empathy, but also glad that she's learning to think more critically as well. I think it's good that we all have both.

I'm sure there are counter cases. No matter who she votes for, she is thinking for herself. That is good to see. She sounds strong. Its not easy for a kid to talk to their parents who may have strong views.

People should vote their priorities.. I speak from experience since I refuse to vote for Trump or Kamala. I'm tired of having both sides tell me I am throwing my vote away. It is my vote to throw away. (And send a message to the establishment. I will not play their game), This is my priority.

Statistically though the Gen Z kids are more left than on average than any other generation. But they are not partisan. They vote on issues. The ones I talk to seem angry at corporate America. Not the government, or only so far as corporate America controls the government. The see capitalism as the enemy. And Trump is the epitome of capitalism. These Gen Z also have a diverse group of friends, more so than previous generations. Their empathy for what they see as marginalized groups will push them left.

I see the Gen Z left coming for 2024 then same way the blue collar white men came for 2016. They are flying under the radar right now.
 
testboner

testboner

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People should vote their priorities.. I speak from experience since I refuse to vote for Trump or Kamala. I'm tired of having both sides tell me I am throwing my vote away. It is my vote to throw away. (And send a message to the establishment. I will not play their game), This is my priority.
;)
 
testboner

testboner

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Whether one votes (pleads their master) one way or the other, it’s the system owners that control all the matters you take issue with. The economy likely being the best example;
The FED controls monetary policy (“economy”) regardless the president…. the president has no real control over the economy. The system owners, of which the private cartel who owns the FED consists of, are in control.


IMG_4390.jpeg
 
fasttwitch

fasttwitch

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Mar 17, 2011
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There is some evidence that the many polls are "herding."

Basically they are showing a dead heat where a dead heat does not exist, mostly out of fear of missing something again and losing face. If they say it is 50/50 then they can only be partly wrong, instead of very wrong. Polls are a business, they want to be right so they can sell their models, but more than anything they do not want to be severely wrong. They seem to be hedging their bets. Once a few polls start herding then most other polls follow suit.

2022 was a great indicator. The red wave was a pathetic pink trickle.

They are missing the same youth vote that put Biden in office. Now, in 2024 there are 12 million more Gen Z kids than in 2020. 49% of Gen Z kids eligible to vote, voted in 2022. There is about 6 million Gen Z votes that are not being counted correctly by the polls. Gen Z voted 3 to 1 for Biden.
 
Yano

Yano

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Sep 18, 2022
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^^^^ Will be interesting to see if this theory plays out. My daughter falls in this age group, and when we were visiting her in Chicago last month she started talking politics with us (I never bring up politics with family!)

It was interesting. She voted for Biden in 2020, and she indicated she was voting Republican in 2024 (funny, she had to qualify her comments by saying she wishes Trump wasn't such an ass! LOL) When I asked her why, it was two things: inflation and the border. Things have gotten a LOT more expensive for young people right out of school over the past 4 years (groceries, gas, utilities, rent, etc), and places like Chicago have tons of homeless people and immigrant crime spikes due to the wide-open border. I don't know if she's representative or not, but it was interesting to hear her thoughts.

She actually said: "I feel like the Dems manipulated by empathy." I'm glad she has empathy, but also glad that she's learning to think more critically as well. I think it's good that we all have both.
One of our daughters is the same way and I had to remind her that 4 years ago prices were rock bottom due to covid. With every one locked down businesses were cutting their profit margins down 70 and 80% just to draw customers out of their homes. What you're seeing isn't real inflation so much as it's greedy corporations that took advantage of the "supply chain debacle" to jack prices back up through the roof and once that myth was washed away ... none of the prices got lowered back to normal.

Yet a can of Arizona Iced Tea still costs the same as it did in 1992 and the guy is a multibillionaire.
 
Yano

Yano

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Sep 18, 2022
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There is some evidence that the many polls are "herding."

Basically they are showing a dead heat where a dead heat does not exist, mostly out of fear of missing something again and losing face. If they say it is 50/50 then they can only be partly wrong, instead of very wrong. Polls are a business, they want to be right so they can sell their models, but more than anything they do not want to be severely wrong. They seem to be hedging their bets. Once a few polls start herding then most other polls follow suit.

2022 was a great indicator. The red wave was a pathetic pink trickle.

They are missing the same youth vote that put Biden in office. Now, in 2024 there are 12 million more Gen Z kids than in 2020. 49% of Gen Z kids eligible to vote, voted in 2022. There is about 6 million Gen Z votes that are not being counted correctly by the polls. Gen Z voted 3 to 1 for Biden.
If they tell us all it's a blow out ,, no one tunes in to watch all the commercials. :p
 
BD Bodybuilder

BD Bodybuilder

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Sep 25, 2024
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^^^^ Will be interesting to see if this theory plays out. My daughter falls in this age group, and when we were visiting her in Chicago last month she started talking politics with us (I never bring up politics with family!)

It was interesting. She voted for Biden in 2020, and she indicated she was voting Republican in 2024 (funny, she had to qualify her comments by saying she wishes Trump wasn't such an ass! LOL) When I asked her why, it was two things: inflation and the border. Things have gotten a LOT more expensive for young people right out of school over the past 4 years (groceries, gas, utilities, rent, etc), and places like Chicago have tons of homeless people and immigrant crime spikes due to the wide-open border. I don't know if she's representative or not, but it was interesting to hear her thoughts.

She actually said: "I feel like the Dems manipulated by empathy." I'm glad she has empathy, but also glad that she's learning to think more critically as well. I think it's good that we all have both.

I am sorry, but what your daughter is exhibiting here is indoctrination/brainwashing by MAGA propaganda, not critical thinking. I feel for you, because I have two daughters: One is college-educated and a critical thinker and hates Trump, and one is neither and supports Trump. The number of Americans who actually know how to think critically is dwindling.


Also, I can say empirically that of the people I know who can think critically, none of them are supporting Trump.
 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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Dec 25, 2010
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I am sorry, but what your daughter is exhibiting here is indoctrination/brainwashing by MAGA propaganda, not critical thinking. I feel for you, because I have two daughters: One is college-educated and a critical thinker and hates Trump, and one is neither and supports Trump. The number of Americans who actually know how to think critically is dwindling.


Also, I can say empirically that of the people I know who can think critically, none of them are supporting Trump.
I'd be more apt to be persuaded, except where is the propaganda coming from? All the MSM has been vilifying Trump and anything MAGA continuously for years. And Harris has been treated with kid gloves, not asked hard questions, and no one is requiring her to actually explain to voters what she's going to do.

She has a slogan about "turning the page." From what? What Biden policies is she going to depart from? She's going to build the wall after mocking it for 4 years?

On inflation, the feds pumped trillions of dollars into the economy AFTER all the COVID relief. More dollars chasing the same amount of goods results in inflation. Biden mocked Milton Friedman, and yet basic supply/demand bit the country in the butt. Her plan on inflation? Price controls. Going after greedy capitalists. Like grocery stores that run on paper thin margins? Help me understand.

So I'm willing to be persuaded that Harris' policies will be better, but I first need to be told what they are, or what they will be. So far, I've been told about "vibes" and "joy" and "turning the page" and "not looking behind, but moving forward." And not told these things in any direct fashion, but rather through scripted interviews, etc. A reasonable person can have doubts under such circumstances. Maybe even a person exercising critical thinking.
 
BD Bodybuilder

BD Bodybuilder

Member
Sep 25, 2024
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65
I'd be more apt to be persuaded, except where is the propaganda coming from? All the MSM has been vilifying Trump and anything MAGA continuously for years. And Harris has been treated with kid gloves, not asked hard questions, and no one is requiring her to actually explain to voters what she's going to do.

She has a slogan about "turning the page." From what? What Biden policies is she going to depart from? She's going to build the wall after mocking it for 4 years?

On inflation, the feds pumped trillions of dollars into the economy AFTER all the COVID relief. More dollars chasing the same amount of goods results in inflation. Biden mocked Milton Friedman, and yet basic supply/demand bit the country in the butt. Her plan on inflation? Price controls. Going after greedy capitalists. Like grocery stores that run on paper thin margins? Help me understand.

So I'm willing to be persuaded that Harris' policies will be better, but I first need to be told what they are, or what they will be. So far, I've been told about "vibes" and "joy" and "turning the page" and "not looking behind, but moving forward." And not told these things in any direct fashion, but rather through scripted interviews, etc. A reasonable person can have doubts under such circumstances. Maybe even a person exercising critical thinking.
This election is about character - not policy. But if it were about policy, Harris has detailed hers far more than Trump - unless you count the Project 2025 document that Trump claims to know nothing about.
 
tommyguns2

tommyguns2

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Dec 25, 2010
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This election is about character - not policy. But if it were about policy, Harris has detailed hers far more than Trump - unless you count the Project 2025 document that Trump claims to know nothing about.
The election is about what the voters care about. Some voters care about character, some care about policy, some care about both.

Trump's character is known to the voters. I don't want him dating my daughter, and I wouldn't hang out with him in my free time: But on the big things, he was right: Deep State, NATO, NAFTA, China, border, judicial appointments, economy, Iran, North Korea. Biden/Harris are pro-censorship and their foreign policy is a disaster. Whatever it is has resulted in our allies not trusting us, and our enemies not fearing us. That's not success under any objective metric.

But I'm just one voter. Other voters may care about other things.
 
BD Bodybuilder

BD Bodybuilder

Member
Sep 25, 2024
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65
The election is about what the voters care about. Some voters care about character, some care about policy, some care about both.

Trump's character is known to the voters. I don't want him dating my daughter, and I wouldn't hang out with him in my free time: But on the big things, he was right: Deep State, NATO, NAFTA, China, border, judicial appointments, economy, Iran, North Korea. Biden/Harris are pro-censorship and their foreign policy is a disaster. Whatever it is has resulted in our allies not trusting us, and our enemies not fearing us. That's not success under any objective metric.

But I'm just one voter. Other voters may care about other things.

Disagree - on almost every point.

Our allies are scared shitless Trump will get re-elected. Our enemies helped elect him in 2016, and are helping him to this day because they know how easy he is to manipulate. The Deep State is the only thing holding our government together right now. Without NATO, our European allies would probably be Russian satellites. Most economists say NAFTA gave the US far more benefits than costs. China produces most of Trump's grifting merchandise. Trump had a bipartisan bill that would have cleaned up most of our border problems killed just so he could run on the issue. Trump pulled us out of the JCPOA, which had placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump's judicial appointments have been a travesty. Our economy - both Wall Street and Main Street - was on the upswing under Obama before Trump took over, and currently the stock market is at all time highs and inflation is only 2.4%. North Korea has been a thorn in our side since the 1950s - and Trump's love letters with Kim Jung Un didn't change anything.

There is your success metric.
 
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